A newly assembled historical dataset reveals that inflation and the government's administrative capacity have historically driven U.S. tariff rates just as much as—if not more than—explicit congressional legislation. Takeaway: To understand how trade policy affects our economy today, we often look backward. But a new, comprehensive database tracking U.S. tariffs from 1789 to 2026 shows that standard assumptions about how trade barriers work over time need a major update. Key

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its inflation data for the month of July on Wednesday. The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1 percent (seasonally adjusted) from the previous month. However, prices are still up by 3.4 percent from the previous year. Energy prices, especially from fuel, are driving the largest increases in prices year-to-date. The war in Iran is continuing to drive up oil prices as the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormu

A Hot Air Balloon Being Inflated Takeaway This study introduces a framework using LLMs to translate qualitative business commentaries from the Federal Reserve’s "Beige Book" into structured economic data. By feeding firm-level explanations into a macroeconomic model, the authors pinpoint the precise triggers driving historical inflation surges. Key Points Listening over estimating: Qualitative text allows economists to observe why firms say they changed prices, capturing cond

Monthly Import Prices Increase Again In June, But Appear To Be Leveling Off The Import Price Report for June shows that import prices increased slightly - a 0.3 percent increase. However, import prices remain elevated, mainly due to the rise in fuel costs as a result of the war in Iran. Import prices began to rise sharply in February, coinciding with the beginning of the airstrikes targeting high-ranking officials in Iran. Shortly thereafter, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz,

Prices Actually Fell In June, What's Driving The Decline? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4 percent last month, the first monthly decline since the pandemic, offering a tentative sign that the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight may finally be gaining traction. But the broader picture remains less encouraging. Prices are still 3.5 percent higher than a year ago, keeping inflation well above the Fed’s 2 percent target. That persistent pressure makes it likely that policyma

Details on the latest inflation numbers