A Hot Air Balloon Being Inflated Takeaway This study introduces a framework using LLMs to translate qualitative business commentaries from the Federal Reserve’s "Beige Book" into structured economic data. By feeding firm-level explanations into a macroeconomic model, the authors pinpoint the precise triggers driving historical inflation surges. Key Points Listening over estimating: Qualitative text allows economists to observe why firms say they changed prices, capturing cond

Monthly Import Prices Increase Again In June, But Appear To Be Leveling Off The Import Price Report for June shows that import prices increased slightly - a 0.3 percent increase. However, import prices remain elevated, mainly due to the rise in fuel costs as a result of the war in Iran. Import prices began to rise sharply in February, coinciding with the beginning of the airstrikes targeting high-ranking officials in Iran. Shortly thereafter, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz,

Prices Actually Fell In June, What's Driving The Decline? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4 percent last month, the first monthly decline since the pandemic, offering a tentative sign that the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight may finally be gaining traction. But the broader picture remains less encouraging. Prices are still 3.5 percent higher than a year ago, keeping inflation well above the Fed’s 2 percent target. That persistent pressure makes it likely that policyma

Details on the latest inflation numbers