What Strategies Can Schools Employ To Boost College Enrollment?

Takeaway: A recent study uses randomized admissions lotteries to examine how different types of charter schools affect students' long-term educational paths, revealing that state test scores do not always predict whether a school helps its students earn a college degree.

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Key Points

• Short-term standardized test score gains do not always align with long-term college completion rates.

• Urban charter schools with high-expectation models boosted both standardized test scores and college graduation rates.

• Nonurban charter schools featuring alternative, project-based models generated large gains in four-year college completion despite showing no improvement in state standardized test scores.

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Overview

Parents, and policymakers frequently rely on state standardized test scores to judge school quality. The underlying logic seems straightforward: if students score higher on annual state exams, the school must be equipping them with the knowledge and skills necessary to succeed later in life.

However, evaluating educational success primarily through test scores can lead to misleading conclusions. If a school focuses on broader skill sets, project-based learning, or non-traditional curricula that aren't captured well on multiple-choice state exams, its true value might be overlooked by standard accountability metrics.

Understanding how different high school environments shape long-term educational trajectories helps families make informed choices and allows leaders to design policies that encourage genuine college readiness rather than just test preparation.

Background

To determine whether charter schools directly cause better long-term student outcomes—rather than simply enrolling students who were already on track to succeed—the authors took advantage of randomized admissions lotteries in Massachusetts. Because oversubscribed charter schools assign available seats through random draws, comparing students who won a seat to those who lost creates a natural experiment, offering a clear view of the school's causal impact.

The study examined two distinct categories of charter institutions operating in the 2000s and 2010s: urban charter schools, which mostly utilized structured instructional practices with extended school days and disciplined routines, and nonurban charter schools, which favored alternative models such as project-based or individualized learning. The researchers tracked applicants through state records and higher education data to evaluate high school preparation, college enrollment, and six-year bachelor's degree completion.

Findings

The results revealed a striking disconnect between standardized test performance and long-term degree completion. As earlier research documented, urban charter schools generated large gains in state standardized math and reading tests. These urban schools also increased participation in college-preparatory coursework, boosted four-year college enrollment rates, and raised six-year college graduation rates compared to lottery losers.

In contrast, nonurban charter schools did not raise standardized test scores and actually registered lower performance on state math and English exams relative to traditional public schools. Yet, despite these lower test scores, students attending nonurban charters completed state college-ready curricula at high rates, enrolled in four-year universities, and ultimately achieved bachelor's degrees at rates more than twice as large as the degree boost observed in urban charters.

These findings highlight significant limitations in relying strictly on state test results as a proxy for educational effectiveness. While test scores measure specific academic skills at a single point in time, they can miss socio-emotional development, critical thinking skills, or curricular experiences that foster long-term college persistence.

The authors also noted key contextual factors: the boost in college degree attainment was concentrated in charter schools that served high school grades, indicating that school continuity during high school years plays a crucial role in supporting the transition to higher education.

Why This Research Matters

If these findings are correct, policymakers should exercise caution when using standardized test performance as the sole measure of school quality. Judging schools strictly by test performance risks undervaluing educational approaches that successfully prepare students for higher education and long-term success through non-traditional means.

Learn More

• Paper Title: Different Paths to College Success: The Impact of Massachusetts’s Charter Schools on College Trajectories

• Authors: Sarah R. Cohodes and Astrid C. Pineda

• Journal: American Economic Review: Insights

• Publication Year: 2026

Econ Today Explains

Economic Concept: Proxy Variables In policy research, a proxy variable is an easily observed measurement used in place of an outcome that is difficult, expensive, or time-consuming to measure directly. Because tracking long-term outcomes like adult earnings or college graduation takes years, researchers and evaluators often rely on proxy variables—such as annual standardized test scores—to gauge school performance quickly.

However, a proxy variable is only useful if it reliably moves in tandem with the true outcome of interest. When a proxy fails to capture key factors driving long-term results—as demonstrated by schools that increase college completion without raising test scores—relying solely on that proxy can lead to flawed policy decisions.

This article was written by AI but reviewed by a real human.